My hobby

・What will happen to the stock? CRWD's stock price is still down 25% from the price on July 19, the day before the system failure. If the ARR, RPO, and guidance are correct (if they are not revised downward further in the future), I think CRWD is a good buy. How likely is it that the ARR, RPO, and guidance are wrong? I think the stock price has already fallen 25%, so this earnings report should have been a kitchen sink report. (The English phrase "kitchen sink" is "everything but the kitchen sink," which means leaving only the kitchen sink that cannot be moved and including everything else, big and small.) In other words, even if the guidance had been lowered by 20%, I don't think it would have had much impact on the stock price. If expectations are low, it will be easier to exceed expectations in future earnings, so I would have given a fairly conservative number as guidance that I was confident would be exceeded. If that's the case, aren't these nu

On July 18, 2024, IT systems around the world were affected by a software update released by CrowdStrike. This update caused a problem where Windows terminals would display a blue screen and repeatedly reboot. This problem occurred because CrowdStrike's security software "CrowdStrike Falcon" was running on the Windows kernel. (I also vividly remember the problem when I was at work and couldn't open Excel, etc.) <What I think about CRWD's financial results after the above incident> - Impact of the system failure I didn't care about the sales or margins of this quarter's CRWD financial results. The focus this time was on how much Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR: annually renewed revenue) and Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO: backlog) were affected, that is, how many accounts that had already signed up canceled their services. And the revised guidance for this fiscal year after the system failure. Surprisingly, neither ARR nor RPO had decreased. I ha

・What should I do? I have too many NVDA shares, and they have tripled or quadrupled in value, so I'm thinking about cutting them down to about half when the time is right. The stock will probably still rise, and I think $200 is probably solid in the long run, so I won't sell it all, but I feel like I've already eaten the best part of the fish. After that, it's like eating it while removing the bones. In other words, I need to be careful.

- Margins revised downward The guidance announced in the previous financial results predicted a decline in gross margins for this quarter. The guidance for this quarter (July) was 74.8%. And the result was 75.1%. A beat of just 0.3%. Gross margins for the April quarter were 78.4% and the guidance was 76.3%, so there was a beat of about 2%. In other words, the beat for this quarter's guidance was very weak. My model was expecting 76%. And probably the analyst's model was too. And the guidance for October was even lower, at 74.4%. NVDA's demand was far outstripping supply, customers were lining up to fight over products, and shouldn't NVDA be able to sell chips at whatever price they wanted? Why would the gross margin fall in that situation? Something's wrong. Furthermore, I am not entirely convinced by the reason for the decline in margins mentioned in the conference call. It seems that the more Blackwell's sales grow, the lower the margins become, but why are th

A growth stock like NVDA needs to exceed its guidance. It needs to come up with numbers that it is confident it can exceed by a fairly comfortable margin. Moreover, this is especially true since consensus forecasts are revised upwards as the financial results approach. In that case, it is best to set the guidance as low as possible. $33 billion is a bit tough. But $32 billion is probably too low. Therefore, it was a difficult decision to set it at $32.5 billion. As I said in my previous post, it has become difficult to compare with the same period last year since this July period. The slowdown in growth rate is clearly visible. NVDA, which easily surpassed analysts' figures no matter how many times they raised them, seems to have become an NVDA that is afraid of upward revisions to the consensus. This was felt in the number of $0.5. The financial results were good, but the stock price fell. This is exactly the market reaction, which shareholders were late to.

NVIDIA's stock price is expected to fluctuate significantly after the financial results are announced. In particular, the expected volatility this time is greater than at any point in the past three years, and the impact of NVIDIA's stock price fluctuations on the entire U.S. stock market cannot be ignored. Main article Expected volatility NVIDIA's stock price is expected to fluctuate by about 9.8% the day after the financial results are announced. This is greater than at any point before the financial results are announced in the past three years, and exceeds the average historical volatility of 8.1%. NVIDIA's market capitalization is about $3.11 trillion, so a 9.8% fluctuation is equivalent to about $305 billion. There is no other stock that moves such a large amount of money. NVIDIA's influence NVIDIA's semiconductors are essential for AI, and its stock price fluctuations have a large impact on U.S. stocks as a whole. In fact, about a quarter of the S&P 5

Introduction Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to announce its financial results this Wednesday, and attention is focused on the impact this will have on the overall stock market. In particular, the company made a major guidance update in its financial results announcement in May 2023, which caused its stock price to soar, but the situation is different this time. Main article Past financial results and changes in growth rate NVDA had recorded negative growth for four consecutive fiscal years until the April 2023 fiscal year, but its stock price soared because its guidance for the July 2023 fiscal year was very high. Until the April 2024 fiscal year, year-on-year comparisons were easy and the growth rate was very high, but this fiscal year (July 2024) will be difficult to make year-on-year comparisons. Slowing growth rate The expected growth rate for this fiscal year is 139% for EPS and 113% for sales, and is expected to slow to 77% and 75%, respectively, in the next fiscal year (October 2024

To summarize Chairman Powell's remarks - He is more confident that inflation is on track to reach 2% - It is time to adjust policy - The risk of rising inflation has decreased, while the risk of falling employment has increased He has almost made it clear that interest rates will be cut in September However, he did not suggest a 25bp or 50bp cut. The focus is on the results of the US employment statistics. The scenario for the dollar/yen was as analyzed.

This year's market decline has several important characteristics compared to last year. First, this year's decline was characterized by a sharp rise in the VIX (Volatility Index) last Monday, accompanied by large trading volumes. This phenomenon is called "capitulation" and is considered a big trading day that drains the market of pus. Capitulation refers to a temporary large drop in the market as investors sell a lot. On the other hand, there was no capitulation during last summer's decline. This indicates that last year's market decline was not as sharp as this year's. Furthermore, there have only been three times in the past 35 years when the VIX has risen to 65: during the Lehman Shock, the Corona Shock, and this time. This also shows how unusual this year's market decline has been. Finally, last week's sharp decline may have led to the liquidation of leveraged, fleeing positions. This is expected to stabilize the market. This year's market

This will likely be a major turning point for the semiconductor industry as well.

The US stock market in August fell in response to the deterioration of the US economic index, but it climaxed last Monday with the forced selling caused by the unwinding of the yen carry trade. After that, the US stock market rose on 7 out of 8 business days, recovering the decline since August 1. However, future market trends will depend on the trend of the economy. After the FOMC meeting in July, the focus of the market shifted from "inflation and interest rate cuts" to "economy". As a result, the current market is in a situation where good news rises and bad news falls. If economic indicators worsen, stock prices may fall again. Also, you cannot be at ease just because there is a follow-through day. Follow-throughs are often false, and there were several false follow-through days even during the three consecutive months of decline last summer. As a result, stock prices continued to fall until they hit bottom in October. The decline in August has ended for the tim

If the economy slows down from the current growth rate of about 2% to about 1%, I think the US stock market will be generally fine. At the moment, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the US economy will suddenly cool down enough to have negative growth in 2024 or 2025. Therefore, I bought more NVDA and META today. And I haven't sold anything today. It's all a matter of winning or losing, but stocks that I plan to hold for the long term are certainly less risky today than they were two weeks ago. Buffett also sold a lot of stocks in the second quarter to increase his cash ratio, so I think he should be careful, but I have to bet faithfully and with confidence in my opinions and analysis, otherwise I will regret it later, so I will follow my own opinion honestly. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it honestly and start over. That's the fun of investing. For me, investing is fun whether it's up or down. It's an intellectual pursuit and a battle with my own emotions. If

Apparently the US stock market crash on Monday was triggered by the forced withdrawal of yen carry trades. This story is all the rage among US investors. Carry trades are essentially investments made with leverage in foreign currency. Therefore, when a forced withdrawal occurs, everything is sold mercilessly due to margin calls. If this is true, I expect this crash to not last long.

BCA Research predicts that the S&P 500 may fall sharply in 2024 due to the effects of an economic downturn. JP Morgan is also bearish and does not expect stock prices to rise in 2024. On the other hand, Ned Davis Research thinks that the S&P 500 may rise depending on the Fed's policies. Japanese market: The Nikkei average has reached a new all-time high for the first time in 34 years and is expected to continue to rise. There are many bullish outlooks for the Japanese stock market due to factors such as escaping deflation and corporate restructuring.

The impact of an announcement of a dividend suspension on stock prices varies depending on investor expectations and the market's reaction. We believe that stock prices rise due to expectations of reinvestment and financial soundness. Specifically, this is the case when a company suspends dividends, which encourages it to reinvest profits and is expected to lead to future growth and improved profitability, or when a dividend suspension contributes to financial soundness and debt repayment. On the other hand, we believe that stock prices fall due to investor disappointment and a decline in trust. Specifically, this is the case when investors who were expecting dividends become disappointed and sell their shares, or when the market judges that a dividend suspension indicates a deterioration in the company's financial situation.

NTT West Japan has introduced "Biz∫ Accounting" as a management accounting system. This system is designed to support management analysis and consolidated financial statements for the entire group. ●Effects 〇Improved business efficiency By unifying the accounting systems of each group company, business operations are standardized and streamlined. This has reduced costs and improved the quality of business operations in accounting and finance. 〇Strengthened internal control By centralizing the management of financial information, internal control is strengthened, and it is expected that fraud prevention and errors will be reduced. 〇Quick decision-making It enables the rapid provision of management information and multifaceted analysis, supporting management decision-making. ●Challenges 〇Division and overlap of business operations There are divisions and overlaps between business areas, and there are some areas where double input and transcription checks are required. 〇Increase