My hobby

On July 18, 2024, IT systems around the world were affected by a software update released by CrowdStrike. This update caused a problem where Windows terminals would display a blue screen and repeatedly reboot. This problem occurred because CrowdStrike's security software "CrowdStrike Falcon" was running on the Windows kernel. (I also vividly remember the problem when I was at work and couldn't open Excel, etc.) <What I think about CRWD's financial results after the above incident> - Impact of the system failure I didn't care about the sales or margins of this quarter's CRWD financial results. The focus this time was on how much Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR: annually renewed revenue) and Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO: backlog) were affected, that is, how many accounts that had already signed up canceled their services. And the revised guidance for this fiscal year after the system failure. Surprisingly, neither ARR nor RPO had decreased. I ha

・What should I do? I have too many NVDA shares, and they have tripled or quadrupled in value, so I'm thinking about cutting them down to about half when the time is right. The stock will probably still rise, and I think $200 is probably solid in the long run, so I won't sell it all, but I feel like I've already eaten the best part of the fish. After that, it's like eating it while removing the bones. In other words, I need to be careful.

- Margins revised downward The guidance announced in the previous financial results predicted a decline in gross margins for this quarter. The guidance for this quarter (July) was 74.8%. And the result was 75.1%. A beat of just 0.3%. Gross margins for the April quarter were 78.4% and the guidance was 76.3%, so there was a beat of about 2%. In other words, the beat for this quarter's guidance was very weak. My model was expecting 76%. And probably the analyst's model was too. And the guidance for October was even lower, at 74.4%. NVDA's demand was far outstripping supply, customers were lining up to fight over products, and shouldn't NVDA be able to sell chips at whatever price they wanted? Why would the gross margin fall in that situation? Something's wrong. Furthermore, I am not entirely convinced by the reason for the decline in margins mentioned in the conference call. It seems that the more Blackwell's sales grow, the lower the margins become, but why are th

A growth stock like NVDA needs to exceed its guidance. It needs to come up with numbers that it is confident it can exceed by a fairly comfortable margin. Moreover, this is especially true since consensus forecasts are revised upwards as the financial results approach. In that case, it is best to set the guidance as low as possible. $33 billion is a bit tough. But $32 billion is probably too low. Therefore, it was a difficult decision to set it at $32.5 billion. As I said in my previous post, it has become difficult to compare with the same period last year since this July period. The slowdown in growth rate is clearly visible. NVDA, which easily surpassed analysts' figures no matter how many times they raised them, seems to have become an NVDA that is afraid of upward revisions to the consensus. This was felt in the number of $0.5. The financial results were good, but the stock price fell. This is exactly the market reaction, which shareholders were late to.

NVIDIA's stock price is expected to fluctuate significantly after the financial results are announced. In particular, the expected volatility this time is greater than at any point in the past three years, and the impact of NVIDIA's stock price fluctuations on the entire U.S. stock market cannot be ignored. Main article Expected volatility NVIDIA's stock price is expected to fluctuate by about 9.8% the day after the financial results are announced. This is greater than at any point before the financial results are announced in the past three years, and exceeds the average historical volatility of 8.1%. NVIDIA's market capitalization is about $3.11 trillion, so a 9.8% fluctuation is equivalent to about $305 billion. There is no other stock that moves such a large amount of money. NVIDIA's influence NVIDIA's semiconductors are essential for AI, and its stock price fluctuations have a large impact on U.S. stocks as a whole. In fact, about a quarter of the S&P 5

Introduction Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to announce its financial results this Wednesday, and attention is focused on the impact this will have on the overall stock market. In particular, the company made a major guidance update in its financial results announcement in May 2023, which caused its stock price to soar, but the situation is different this time. Main article Past financial results and changes in growth rate NVDA had recorded negative growth for four consecutive fiscal years until the April 2023 fiscal year, but its stock price soared because its guidance for the July 2023 fiscal year was very high. Until the April 2024 fiscal year, year-on-year comparisons were easy and the growth rate was very high, but this fiscal year (July 2024) will be difficult to make year-on-year comparisons. Slowing growth rate The expected growth rate for this fiscal year is 139% for EPS and 113% for sales, and is expected to slow to 77% and 75%, respectively, in the next fiscal year (October 2024